It is the correct reading of what falling energy actually does to the rate differential. Cheaper energy is a rate cut in disguiseThe European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.25% last week and framed the hold hawkishly enough to move markets toward a quarter-point hike in September. Euro-area inflation ran at 2.8% YoY in June against 3.2% in May, and staff projections put the 2026 average near 3.0% almost entirely on the energy line. The Dollar Index near a five-week high with energy falling and equities cracking is not a contradiction. Technical outlookResistance: 1.1400 is the immediate line and Tuesday's ceiling, with the five-week range top near 1.1450 above it.