One training run at OpenAI recently consumed as much compute as the company’s entire previous footprint, according to Altman. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has pointed to power availability and data center construction timelines as the binding constraints on AI infrastructure today. The industry is simultaneously dealing with not enough compute today and potentially too much compute tomorrow. As of mid-2026, Meta announced plans to sell off excess AI compute capacity, signaling that at least one major player had already reached a point of internal surplus. What this means for investorsThe compute oversupply thesis has real implications for a massive swathe of the market.