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Flutter could see prediction market concerns ease as Jefferies highlights upside opportunities
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Flutter could see prediction market concerns ease as Jefferies highlights upside opportunities Proactive uses images sourced from ShutterstockFlutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR, NYSE:FLUT) is at a potential inflection point as concerns around prediction market competition begin to fade, according to Jefferies analysts, who highlighted improving online sports betting trends and potential new sources of profitability.
"The powerful, but misplaced narrative that PMs will cannibalise OSB has started to unravel," Jefferies wrote, adding that prediction markets could instead provide incremental opportunities for Flutter through market-making activity, FanDuel Predicts and regulatory leverage.
Jefferies identified market-making as the largest potential opportunity, estimating a $340 million annual EBITDA contribution if Flutter captures a 25% share of Kalshi parlays.
Jefferies estimated that prediction markets would need to reduce online sports betting handle by around 50% before becoming a net negative for Flutter, given the potential incremental profitability opportunities.
A stronger Q2, alongside improved visibility into prediction market opportunities, could help address investor concerns around the expected second-half earnings step-up, Jefferies wrote.