The fact that an El Niño is occurring now isn’t surprising. But the latest predictions suggest that this El Niño could become even bigger than anticipated. The pattern of heatwaves, droughts, flooding and wildfires associated with El Niño will also have consequences for economies. Mankin and his colleagues have estimated1 that changes in weather attributed to a strong El Niño in 1997–98 shrank global economic growth by US$5.7 trillion in the years that followed. If the forecasts are anywhere near correct, the current El Niño could cause “$10 trillion in economic losses by 2032”, Mankin says.