The developing El Niño event is raising expectations of higher global temperatures, both this year and next. - El Niño conditions developed in April and reached the threshold for a strong event in June, when the Niño 3.4 index reached 1.6°C. Carbon Brief's updated projection for 2026 combines observed temperatures between January and June with the latest El Niño forecast. Based on data available in March, there was only a 7% chance that 2026 would set a new global temperature record. As a result, an El Niño event that peaks in November and December 2026 is expected to have its greatest influence on global temperatures during 2027.