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Estimates of Q2 Chinese GDP
['Menzie Chinn']
Econbrowser
From BOFIT today:From the analysis:Official figures show the Chinese economy grew by 4.3 % y-o-y in the second quarter of this year (up 3.6 % q-o-q annually adjusted), missing China’s official 4.5–5 % target range for the year.
Weak household demand and lower fixed investment reduced growth from 5 % y-o-y in the first quarter (up 5.3 % q-o-q).
BOFIT’s alternative GDP calculations indicate Q2 growth slowed to 3.1 % y-o-y (3.2 % in 1Q).
Our estimated alternative GDP growth rate band also widened considerably (1.2–4.7 %).
The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook released earlier this month raised its Chinese GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6 %, and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1 % for 2027.