Consensus forecasts had already placed 2026 growth near 1.2% before renewed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil and natural gas prices higher. Dutch TTF natural gas prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, with fertilizer shortages and a strong El Niño threatening further food-price pressure. European gas prices peaked at €62 per megawatt-hour, compared with €339 in August 2022, without an outright supply shortage. A resilient global manufacturing cycle and AI-related investment are supporting European capital-goods producers. Related articlesCan Europe avoid a recession?