JPMorgan warned Friday that a "super" El Niño combined with higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could slow the decline in global inflation next year, adding roughly 0.3 percentage points to headline inflation worldwide. The bank puts the odds of the current El Niño strengthening into a "very strong" or "super" event at 81% by the end of the year, with a 97% probability conditions persist into 2027. A super El Niño typically disrupts agricultural production across Asia and Latin America through droughts, excessive rainfall, and shifting growing seasons. JPMorgan estimates that would lift global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak. JPMorgan expects emerging markets to absorb most of the inflation shock because food accounts for a larger share of household spending.