HSBC argued that while SpaceX dominates commercial launch services and Starlink has established a leading position in satellite internet, its AI ambitions face much stiffer competition. The bank believes xAI trails leading AI developers in enterprise adoption and compute scale, requiring substantial capital spending to compete with hyperscalers. HSBC estimates free cash flow will not turn positive until 2030 after roughly $106 billion of cumulative cash usage. The bank estimated a "blue-sky" valuation of $293 per share, assuming successful commercialization of Starship, stronger Starlink adoption and faster AI monetization. Related articlesHSBC starts SpaceX at Hold, sees execution risks tempering long-term AI ambitionsNvidia's new Alpamayo project: What it means for Tesla?