According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:Figure 1: CPI (blue), core CPI (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations. In terms of the Fed’s preferred measure:Figure 2: PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations. However, with gasoline prices rising without apparent stop (see graph below), it seems unlikely that these nowcasts will prove to be overshooting.