The problem is that quotas have been rising while actual production has been moving in the opposite direction. According to OPEC's own data, the group produced 36.28 million bpd in June, down from nearly 43 million bpd before the war began in February. If approved, September's increase would complete the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut adopted in 2023, adjusted for the UAE's departure from OPEC earlier this year. Reuters calculations show the seven producers will have restored roughly 1.15 million bpd of quotas since April. Higher quotas signal that OPEC+ intends to replace lost barrels as soon as export routes allow it.