30-year mortgage rates and oil pricesI have talked about the risk of this Iran conflict escalating and how my forecast of the 10-year yield at 4.60% and mortgage rates peaking at 6.75% would be in danger if the conflict continued. Since the conflict reignited, I’ve warned that rates could rise higher than my peak forecast if the Iran conflict gets even worse. Today, HousingWire’s mortgage rates center — powered by Polly locked rate data — has rates at 6.90% and Mortgage News Daily is at 6.85%. As you can see in the chart below, if mortgage spreads were at 2024 or 2025 levels, mortgage rates would have been over 7% months ago. today, not If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.42% todaytoday If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be 7.23% today.