For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly trajectories for the five strongest observed El Niño events across their development year and decay, against the 2026-27 multi-model forecast. Long-time readers may recall that in a warming world, the raw Niño 3.4 anomaly risks conflating El Niño with the broader ocean warming trend. As above, but for the relative Niño 3.4 index (RONI): Niño 3.4 anomaly minus the 20S-20N tropical-mean anomaly, with the L’Heureux et al. As always, for daily updates on the El Niño forecast and global temperatures head over to our Climate Dashboard.