Brent crude futures are trading in the low $90s as the Gulf area escalation enters a tenth consecutive day. "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up," Struyven said. Struyven noted, "Brent might exceed $120/bbl in 2026Q4 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027 (Exhibit 2, red line). Analysts at Rystad Energy AS warned in a note that the Houthi threat against crude flows means that Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route "is now directly in the line of fire." If major oil infrastructure in the region is targeted and the conflict extends beyond the summer, prices could spike to $120+/bbl.