In January 2025 the world saw the stock market collapsing with the ‘DeepSeek moment’. What happened: DeepSeek released an open weight model making a big leap in capabilities compared to predecessors. After DeepSeek, the assumption flipped: open models commoditize the frontier, so the moat is gone. The crunch already arrivedSo no, I don’t think we get another DeepSeek moment, at least not the version the market keeps bracing for. A cheap open model won’t make compute worthless, because the better and cheaper models get, the more compute the world wants.