But in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 Palantir grew revenue 93% year on year, grew US commercial revenue 149%, and posted a Rule of 40 score of 155%. Annualise that free cash flow and Palantir trades on roughly 85 times cash generation, not 51 times revenue with no earnings behind it. What happens next: three predictionsFirst, the US commercial growth rate is the only number that matters next quarter. This analysis sets a $245 bull case and a $98 bear case against the 11 August 2026 close of $174.94. Government revenue remains substantial and high-margin, but US commercial revenue grew 149% year on year in Q2 2026 and is what re-rated the stock.