That’s because the economy is already in a precarious state, with the labor market struggling, consumers losing confidence and uncertainty mounting. Let me explain how a prolonged shutdown could affect the economy – and why it could be a tipping point to recession. US economy is already in distressThis is all occurring as the US labor market is flashing warnings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell refers to this as a “curious kind of balance” in the labor market. This raises the risk of reigniting inflation, but the cooling labor market is a more immediate concern for the Fed.