Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal.