ETFs could add another layer as the products bought 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, a 71% jump in holdings, and may be positioned to increase allocations into year-end. The indicator compares bitcoin’s current market price with several realized price metrics — the average cost basis of different groups of investors recorded on-chain. When spot price climbs above those levels, the model interprets it as a shift into the “bull” phase, reflecting rising momentum and profits across the holder base. In 2024, the index broke above 50 at the start of Q4, just before bitcoin surged from around $70,000 to $100,000. With demand metrics already strengthening, traders are watching closely for a repeat of that pattern in the months ahead.