Not only have recent polls pointed to Reform effectively replacing the Conservatives as the main opposition, some have even suggested Farage could enter Downing Street if such support is maintained at the next election. The Guardian’s latest poll tracker – which takes an average of the polls over the last 10 days – has Reform polling at 31%. The latest of these, from YouGov published on 26 September, estimated that Reform UK could win 311 seats if an election were held today. While this would be 15 seats short of an overall majority, it would put Farage in Downing St. It is common for new governments to lose popularity in their first year and come back to win re-election.