L AST OCTOBER Anne Neuberger, America’s top cyber official, issued a dire warning. Cybercrime would cost the world more than $23trn by 2027, up from $8.4trn in 2022. More recently the IMF noted that cyber-attacks have doubled since the covid-19 pandemic. “The risk of extreme losses from cyber incidents is increasing,” said the fund. But is the economic impact of cyber-attacks really so large—or rising so fast?