The ISM index slipped to 49.1 in September, below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Pair that with an ISM employment reading below 50 and you get a clear message: hiring is getting harder to sustain. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.46% and applications fell 12.7% week on week. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.79 million barrels and gasoline inventories jumped 4.13 million as refinery utilization fell 1.6 percentage points. Investors are likely to favor quality, cash-generative stocks and investment-grade credit over early-cycle plays until orders—and hiring—firm up again.