Prior performance is no guarantee of future returns, but previous shutdowns have typically seen bullish steepening of the US yield curve, a slightly softer dollar and mixed news for equities. What is probably more relevant for FX markets is the context of this shutdown. A government shutdown will feed into those trends – especially if President Trump follows through with threats to fire and not just furlough non-essential government staff. The shutdown also means we are unlikely to see weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the September payroll report on Friday. DXY could drift towards the 97.20 area and USD/JPY to 147.00/147.20 – with softer US equities probably a dollar negative in the current environment.