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Unexpected jump in Dutch inflation in September
['Marcel Klok']
ING Think
Inflation of energy and fuel, in particular, accelerated last month, as fuel prices rose in line with our expectations.
More unexpected was the considerable jump in core inflation, from 2.2%YoY in August to 2.7% YoY in September.
Service inflation was already elevated in August, largely due to home rents – which account for nearly 8% of the inflation basket – but the jump from 2.9% to 3.6% in September cannot be attributed solely to housing demand.
Although the service inflation acceleration is surprising, these wage cost developments might explain why service inflation was and continues to be above normal rates.
All this shows that a return to more modest inflation will take longer than expected and is unlikely before year-end.