The US government has officially entered a shutdown in nearly seven years today, 1 October 2025, after Senate Republican and Democratic leaders remained locked in a stalemate over health care subsidies and engaged in brinkmanship maneuvers to frame the 2026 midterm elections. The previous shutdown occurred in late December 2018 during President Trump’s first term, which lasted for 34 days, the longest US government shutdown in history since 1976. Based on the data compiled by Bloomberg for the last three shutdowns, in 2013, early 2018, and late 2018, the US dollar drifted lower (Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index) both during the impasse and in the aftermath of the shutdowns. The late 2018 episode produced the most pronounced bout of US dollar weakness; the greenback shed around -2% during the shutdown period of 34 days. Right now, let's examine one key macro factor that is likely to support the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the EUR/USD in light of the latest US government shutdown.