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OECD upgrades global growth forecast to 3.2%, warns tariff shock yet to hit
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The OECD has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 2.9% in June, citingstronger-than-expected resilience in emerging markets,AI-driven investment in the U.S.,and fiscal support in China.
U.S. growth is now projected at 1.8% this year, above June’s 1.6% forecast, but still well down from 2.8% in 2024.
Headline inflation across the G20 is forecast at 3.4% in 2025, slightly lower than June’s 3.6% projection.
U.S. inflation was revised down to 2.7% from 3.2%, but risks remain elevated due to tariffs, fiscal concerns, and financial market repricing.
The OECD also flagged crypto volatility as a stability risk, though it noted AI adoption and easing trade restrictions could provide upside surprises.
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