Russia’s summer Ukraine offensive looks like its deadliest yet Our analysis of what it has cost both sides Tracked fires, past 30 days War-related fires Other fires Occupied by Russia To track the war in Ukraine, The Economist uses satellite data from a NASA programme originally designed to monitor forest fires. Our algorithms assess if these fires are linked to the conflict—letting us map Russia’s summer offensive in near real time. C aptured Russian officers in Ukraine reportedly say the summer offensive was presented to them as “one last push”. Our numbers suggest roughly 31,000 Russians may have been killed in the summer offensive so far, which began in earnest on May 1st. Daily change in Russian-controlled area 30-day moving average, km2 ←Russian losses Russian gains → -20 0 40 20 2023 Bakhmut falls Second Ukrainian counter-offensive 2024 Avdiivka falls Kharkiv offensive Vuhledar falls 2025 Russian summer offensive Daily change in Russian-controlled area 30-day moving average, km2 40 ↑ Russian gains Kharkiv offensive Vuhledar falls Russian summer offensive 20 Bakhmut falls Avdiivka falls 0 -20 Second Ukrainian counter-offensive ↓ Russian losses -40 2024 2025 2023 Daily change in Russian-controlled area 30-day moving average, km2 40 Kharkiv offensive Vuhledar falls Russian summer offensive ↑ Russian gains 20 Bakhmut falls Avdiivka falls 0 Second Ukrainian counter-offensive -20 ↓ Russian losses -40 2024 2025 2023Ukraine is still putting up a mighty defence against a far bigger power.