In contrast, Eurozone data remained soft: French manufacturing PMI (48.1) and German manufacturing PMI (48.5) stayed below the 50 contraction threshold, even as German services improved into expansion territory (52.5). In the U.S., goods inflation has eased, yet services inflation remains sticky, making it difficult for the Fed to signal aggressive easing while the labor market has yet to cool decisively. Given Europe’s fragile growth, an energy shock would likely push the ECB toward a more “growth first” policy stance, which is not supportive of the euro. Conversely, any “hot” surprises from U.S. labor or services data will reinforce the case for higher-for-longer rates, adding pressure on the euro. In sum, the near-term outlook for EURUSD leans modestly bearish until there is clearer evidence that the U.S. labor market is cooling and services inflation is on a durable downtrend.