Mexico is gearing up for a warmer and drier winter than normal, according to official forecasts from the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the National Meteorological Service (SMN). In the Sierra Madre Occidental region (Chihuahua, Durango and parts of Sinaloa and Zacatecas), the SMN expects below-average minimum temperatures. This phenomenon causes heavy rains and rising temperatures in several ocean regions, primarily in waters off the west coast of South America. Meanwhile, La Niña is the cool phase of the ENSO cycle and results in effects that are generally the opposite of those of El Niño. Although La Niña is associated with the cooling of the Pacific Ocean, it can increase temperatures in Mexico during the winter, primarily because it reduces the arrival of cold fronts and favors dry conditions.