On Monday, Stats NZ released data on filled jobs for August, which recorded a 0.2% monthly rise, in line with expectations. However, as shown below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the August data incorporated chunky historical revisions, which suggest a weaker labour market starting point. The earlier reported 0.2% increase in July was revised down to a flat result, with the level of employment revised down by 0.8% compared to July. The following chart from major bank ASB shows that New Zealand’s youth have borne the brunt of job losses. “Given the lack of growth tailwinds apparent, we expect 75bp of OCR cuts and a 2.25% OCR by year-end as the RBNZ provides more economic support to the economy and broader labour market”.