With the United States and Europe both reducing their role in foreign aid, the global humanitarian and development environment is more uncertain than ever. This paper aims to answer the question: what are plausible scenarios that describe the United States’ position in the global aid environment 10 years from now? While it does not expand its aid, China maintains strategic partnerships to compete with the United States. The most obvious determinant of the U.S. foreign aid position in 10 years is whether the U.S. remains committed to Trumpian nationalism in the foreign policy arena. It occasionally clashes with the United States by offering up its capabilities as an alternative to the poorly managed aid disbursed by the United States.