Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), GDPNow (9/26) (light blue square), St. Louis nowcast (9/26) (orange triangle), IMF WEO (July) (green circle). Source: Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, IMF World Economic Outlook, July update, author’s calculations. Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow nowcast of 9/26 (light blue square), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations. As this graph demonstrates, even with the fairly upbeat Atlanta Fed nowcast, private domestic aggregate demand has not returned to its pre-shock trajectory.