His argument: “Nonmonetary forces” (tariffs, border and tax policy, trade renegotiation) have likely pushed the neutral rate lower, implying economic growth will be slower over the long run and current Fed policy is very restrictive. As a result, the unemployment rate could remain somewhat stable.Pay after inflation slipped. Weak real wage momentum tends to cap consumer demand without stoking a wage–price spiral. What it means for the Federal ReserveIf September jobs confirm weak payroll growth, slightly higher unemployment, and tame real wage momentum, the bar for a near-term cut remains low. But Powell’s two-sided risk framing still applies: a hot wage or price surprise would slow the pace of easing.