Yet actual ballots cast during the first week of early voting suggest that the electorate is ignoring the polls. This is remarkably similar to the early voting pattern that prevailed in the 2024 presidential election in the swing states and took most political “experts” by surprise. In addition to tracking early votes in the aggregate, VPAP also provides totals by congressional district. According to the VPAP data, 83,548 early votes were cast in GOP districts, while 63,696 were cast in Democrat districts. In other words, 57 percent of the early votes were cast in Republican districts, while only 43 percent of early votes were cast in Democrat districts.