The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 5.50% during its upcoming meeting, though analysts caution that a surprise rate cut cannot be ruled out. However, private investment remains subdued, and financial conditions have tightened since the August policy meeting when the central bank held rates steady. Capital Economics predicts the RBI will resume easing, with one rate cut in October and another in December, citing subdued inflation that remains below the central bank’s 4% target. Still, many experts believe the central bank could wait until December, especially if trade negotiations improve. For now, bond and swap markets have not priced in a cut, suggesting that any surprise easing could trigger a sharp market rally.