His lead would still be in the double digits even if every single person currently backing Adams switches to Cuomo. The last three polls testing a three-man race (Mamdani versus Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa) shows Mamdani leading by between 14 and 16 points. Clearly many Adams voters prefer the progressive Mamdani to the old, moderate Cuomo, himself tarred by the scandals that forced him to resign from the governorship. But Adams’ weakness means Cuomo’s chance at victory requires convincing Sliwa’s voters to join him to stop Mamdani. The three most recent polls testing a Mamdani versus Cuomo head-to-head contest still show Mamdani comfortably ahead with between 47 and 49%.