A draft one-year budget will be published in October and is set to be voted on by members before the Welsh Parliament election next May. First Minister Eluned Morgan is already urging opposition members not to be “reckless” and has appealed for support from opposition groups. When passing its last budget in March, the Welsh Labour government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin. Hefin David’s death has triggered a by-election in Caerphilly (Geoff Caddick/PA)While the seat has been held by Welsh Labour since the Welsh Parliament was first established in 1999, losing the by-election could weaken its majority even further. I think there is a real, real threat that, if we fail to pass this budget, there will be a 25% cut to that budget.