The recent turmoil in Iran neither triggered regime change, nor set the stage for a Venezuela-style coup. Iran also neutralised thousands of satellite-fed Starlink systems smuggled into the country, likely by the US and Israel through their assets on the ground. We should also not forget that Trump perceives regional outcomes through a highly distorted lens. Israel finally fulfilled its decades-long objective of dragging the US into a military confrontation with Iran, with Trump later claiming to have obliterated the country’s nuclear programme. Firstly, as outlined before, there are serious doubts that a quick, bloodless, effective and friendly regime change in Tehran could succeed according to US and Israeli metrics.