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Banca Transilvania expects structural improvements in Romania and 1.7% growth this year
['Romania Insider']
Romania Insider
The fiscal projection envisages 6.5% of GDP public deficit this year – but the forecast apparently preceded the better-than-expected 2025 budget execution data, so possibly the projection might be subject to a downward revision.
The government informally pledged to a 6.2%-of-GDP this year, formed by a 6% gap plus some fiscal space for an economic relaunch package.
Inflation is projected to decline significantly, ending 2026 at 4.3% (versus the central bank's 3.7% y/y projection), compared to almost 10% at the end of 2025.
A key role is played by "the moderate stabilisation of consumption, due to the decline in inflation and the gradual recovery of real incomes."
The monetary policy rate is forecast to decrease "gradually to 5.75% by the end of 2026" from 6.50%.