Market eyes have been trained on oil supply in recent months, but traders who ignore demand developments do so at their own peril. Expectations of a well-supplied oil market in 2026 abound, backed by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) that predict large surpluses this year. To be sure, the IEA's headline numbers remain well below those of Opec and the EIA, which have generally kept their demand growth forecasts for 2026 consistent at 1.4 million b/d and 1.13 million b/d, respectively. The Paris-based agency now says the surplus will average 3.69 million b/d across 2026, down some 400,000 b/d from the 4.09 million b/d overhang it predicted in November. Indeed, some of the same factors have prompted Energy Intelligence to upgrade its 2026 demand growth forecast recently to around 880,000 b/d, up from 800,000 b/d previously.