The mainland luxury market shrank 3 to 5 per cent in 2025, recovering from a drop of 17 to 19 per cent in 2024, and the consultancy forecast that the world’s second largest economy would remain a “cornerstone of luxury market growth”. In its latest China luxury report, the consultancy said that brands catering to affordable luxury and ultra-premium segments emerged as the winners, delivering perceived “true value”. Looking ahead, Bain expects “modest” expansion in 2026, supported by a growing middle class, rising consumer confidence and policy measures that spur domestic consumption. Bain said that domestic spending accounted for 65 per cent of Chinese luxury spending in 2025, reversing the rebound in overseas demand of the previous two years. Daigou sales, or purchases for others – long a pillar of Chinese luxury spending abroad – showed signs of restraint as brands tightened control of unofficial channels.