This vulnerability is structural rather than episodic, rooted in the composition of India’s trade and capital account rather than in short-term mismanagement or policy error. This dissonance has led the Survey to conclude that the rupee is “punching below its weight,” a striking phrase that captures the disconnect between economic performance and currency valuation. The imposition of steep 50 per cent tariffs by the United States has raised concerns about India’s export prospects, particularly in sectors reliant on the American market. Services exports have consistently outpaced goods exports, a trend that has intensified over the past five years. Ultimately, the fate of the rupee is inseparable from the trajectory of India’s manufacturing sector.