The Best Director Oscar winner has never been someone who wasn't a DGA nominee at the very least. Oscar history tells us that there is a strong correlation between winning Best Director and Best Picture. The winner of Best Director has been responsible for the Best Picture winning film 72% of the time — or 70 of 97 times. The Oscars have split Best Picture and Best Director nine times since 2000. The strength of his work, plus the strong narrative, makes him my pick to win Best Director at the Oscars 2026.