Chennai: Amidst heightened levels of uncertainty created by geo-political and economic turmoil, the Economic Survey is unable to project one possible scenario for 2026. Instead, it chose to present three scenarios – all of them anticipating the risks of countries at varied levels while navigating through a fragile ecosystem. The best-case scenario for the world in 2026 is ‘business as in 2025’, but one that becomes increasingly less secure and more fragile. Countries will operate in a world that remains integrated yet increasingly distrustful with a probability of around 40 to 45 per cent to this scenario unfolding in 2026. In the second scenario probability of a disorderly multi-polar breakdown rises materially and cannot be treated as a tail risk.