Longer average sailing distances are expected to support dry bulk demand through 2026, helping offset rising fleet growth and keeping market conditions relatively stable before weakening in 2027, according to new analysis from BIMCO. “We estimate that the dry bulk supply-demand balance will remain stable in 2026 and weaken in 2027,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO. A key driver of dry bulk demand growth is the extension of average sailing distances, which BIMCO expects to increase by 0.5% to 1.5% annually through 2027. On the supply side, fleet growth is accelerating, with capacity forecast to expand by 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. “We estimate that a full return would be equivalent to a 2% reduction in tonne-mile demand due to shorter sailing distances.”China’s economic trajectory also remains central to dry bulk demand.