Mr Trump is notoriously unpredictable: in his first term, he called off an attack on Iran 10 minutes before it happened. However, military intervention could come at huge human cost and would not bring democracy – even if that were Mr Trump’s aim. More likely would be the emergence of a strongman, perhaps from the Revolutionary Guard, or regime collapse and chaos. In the longer term they should consider how to support civil society and help to strengthen it. Military intervention is not the answer – but neither is indifference to the suffering of Iranian civilians.