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China Luxury Market Forecast to Rebound in 2026, Bain Says
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The Business of Fashion
The mainland luxury market shrank 3 percent to 5 percent in 2025, recovering from a drop of 17 percent to 19 percent in 2024, and the consultancy forecast that the world’s second largest economy would remain a “cornerstone of luxury market growth”.
“Brands catering to affordable luxury and ultra-premium segments emerged as winners, delivering perceived ‘true value’, the consultancy said in its latest China luxury report.
Consumer confidence in China, which accounts for about a quarter of luxury spending, has been hit by a prolonged property crisis and job concerns, forcing luxury brands to rethink their strategy in the world’s second-largest economy.
The consultancy described 2025 as a “recalibration” year for the world’s second-largest luxury market, with shoppers becoming more selective and trending towards items offering “true value”.
Bain said domestic spending accounted for 65 percent of Chinese luxury spending in 2025, reversing the rebound in overseas demand of the previous two years.