Here’s the first one: base voters. For candidates, consultants, and independent political actors, the relevant question here is whether base voters will turn out — not what they’ll do if they cast ballots. Here’s a second term of art: swing voters. The final term, split-ticket voters, denotes a subset of swing voters who, in any given election don’t just choose between the red team and the blue team but treat each race as an independent contest. We shouldn’t equate frequent ticket-splitters with the entire universe of swing voters.