While Poilievre is widely expected to survive the review, political observers say a narrow win may not be enough to fully secure his position. “This isn’t just about clearing 50 per cent,” Ellerton said, noting that perceptions matter as much as the formal rules. No organized movement has emerged within the party to rally behind an alternative leader, reducing immediate pressure on Poilievre’s leadership. The Conservatives last held a mandatory leadership review in 2005, following Stephen Harper’s defeat in the 2004 federal election. Harper secured 84 per cent support at the time and later went on to serve as prime minister from 2006 to 2015.