We call this process an exponential curve, where small and slow shifts—the ‘long tail’—suddenly become big and fast change—the ‘steep’ curve. This draws from the tools and perspective of complexity science to offer the broad scope needed to make sense of all the complex, multifarious forces that drive crises. Systemic risk analysis allows us to fully comprehend the long-tail of all the crises peaking this year. But it also reveals how we can turn these exponential curves around, accelerating just as fast and as far in the opposite direction. Ultimately, fast changes grab the headlines, but if we keep an eye on the deep drivers, we can effect the changes needed to address the crises we’re now facing.